【键盘侠】字母哥夺MVP概率远超哈登

[OC] The MVP race is not as close as you think, according to Basketball-Reference

按照BBR上的MVP几率图，现实上MVP的竞争一点也没有那末剧烈。

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[–]not_a_robot2 2933 points 3 days ago

Jokic had that shit locked up for about 3 days.

有那末三天约基奇看起来已锁定了MVP啊。

[–]Bullsjames-1990 1203 points 3 days ago

We Americans need to get better at soccer fast, cuz these Europeans (Jokic, Giannis, Luka, etc.) are gonna takeover basketball

公牛球迷：我们年夜美国需要在足球上变得更好了，由于欧洲人(约基奇、字母哥、东契奇)已最先接收篮球角逐了。

[–]SupersonicsKenshiroTheKid 460 points 3 days ago*

Funny enough most big man that are skilled have played soccer at some point in their life (example: the dream, embiid, jokic, etc.

现实上有一点很成心思，良多年夜个子在他们生射中的某个阶段都踢过足球(好比：年夜梦、恩比德、约基奇)

[–][TOR] Norman Powellpopegang3hunnah 135 points 3 days ago

Yah thats a great point, feel like it must really help with footwork and coordination

猛龙球迷：是啊，这是一个很棒的点，感受足球会帮忙他们在脚步和调和性。

[–]Warriors4sritwoone 140 points 3 days ago

I think it also helps a lot with visualizing passing lanes and court vision in general

勇士球迷：我感觉足球一样帮忙年夜个子们看清传球路径和球场视野吧。

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[–]Kaiagin 216 points 3 days ago

Kobe did too growing up in Italy

科比也是哦，他在乎年夜利长年夜的。

[–]SupersonicsOdolan 247 points 3 days ago

Yeah, but Kobe only 6 ft 6 in, he a midget.

超音速球迷：是的，可是科比才1.98米，不外是个小矮子而已。

[–]NBABramvdw 169 points 3 days ago

Not want to be elitist but soccer could actually improve vision a lot.

不想杠精，可是足球确切可以晋升球场视野。

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[–]PistonsASpartanLeopard 688 points 3 days ago

Wow that's pretty interesting.

活塞球迷：哇哦，这有点有趣哦。

[–]Bucksteotsi 2462 points 3 days ago*

It also feels important to point out how BBREF adjusted their algorithm after Russ won it to decrease the effect team record has(it still matters).

Giannis is posting MVP+DPOY numbers.

雄鹿球迷：还一点需要指出的是，BBREF在威少博得MVP以后调剂了他们的算法，下降了战绩在算法里的权重(固然战绩仍是很主要)

字母哥就是MVP+DPOY的年夜热点。

[–]ThunderLordFlackoThePretty 932 points 3 days ago

That makes sense though right? They should be adjusting the algorithm based on actual results.

雷霆球迷：这是成心义的，不是嘛？他们要按照现实环境来调剂算法啊。

[–]Bucksteotsi 617 points 3 days ago*

Of course. I just pointed it out before people started saying It's only because of Giannis' record . Even though Russ was an exception, he proved that historic numbers do matter, helping Harden's campaign this year. Even so, Giannis is well ahead in this particular ladder.

雄鹿球迷：固然，我指出这一点就是要在那些说“只是由于字母哥战绩好”的人之前堵住他们的嘴，即便威少是个破例，可是他仍然证实了汗青级此外数据是有效的，这也是帮忙哈登本赛季有竞争力的缘由，即便如斯，字母哥在MVP竞争榜上遥遥领先。

[–]Bucksahrzal 236 points 3 days ago

The discussion around Giannis and people trying to minimize his campaign this year is crazy to me. In past years it was Giannis is the future or MVP next year. Now that it's happening, a lot of people are trying to downplay his performance and lift up Harden or PG as much as they can. It's baffling.

雄鹿球迷：在字母哥和那些测验考试缩小他本赛季竞争MVP可能性的人们之间的会商真是让我惊了。曩昔人们城市说“字母哥就是将来”、“他下个赛季就是MVP”，此刻一切都产生了，可是良多人都最先贬低他的表示和拔高哈登和乔治的表示，真的难熬难过。

[–]Thunderjocro 92 points 3 days ago

I'm kinda surprised he doesn't get talked about in DPOY conversations as much.

I love George and think he's deserving, but Giannis's ability to both guard the perimeter and protect the rim is pretty unique this season, and it shows up in the results (best defense in the league).

雷霆球迷：有一点我仍是很震动的，那就是为啥他没有进入DPOY的会商当中。

我很爱乔治，固然乔治也值得一个MVP，可是字母哥既能戍守外线又能庇护篮筐的能力本赛季真的很是怪异，并且球队也确切有所成效(同盟最好戍守)

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[–]ClippersDeja-View 329 points 3 days ago

Imagine telling someone in 2014 that the 41st pick would be in the top 5 MVP candidates in his 4th season.

快船球迷：想象一下，2014年告知你本年41顺位的新秀会在4年后MVP排行榜中位列前五你会相信嘛？

[–]Knicksbdams19 390 points 3 days ago

seems like a very specific thing to imagine

尼克斯球迷：想象起来真的是非凡的工作啊。

[–]BullsPotkukelkkaJames 497 points 3 days ago

In the end it's down to the opinion of a 100 journalists, so grude numbers can't take into account that human factor. Harden won it already, and that for one is a thing that will no doubt affect some of the voters.

But they'd be idiots not to choose Giannis. As much as I'd like that to be PG because after that injury to get back to that level... wow.

公牛球迷：终究这仍是要靠100名记者的定见，所以BBR其实不可能斟酌到这一报酬身分，哈登已赢过一次MVP了，这毫无疑问会影响到他的一些票数。

可是假如不选字母哥毫无疑问也长短常笨拙的，固然我很爱乔治，由于他在伤病以后还能回归如许的级别……哇哦。

[–]PacersThe_One_X 174 points 3 days ago

The human factor is a lot easier to quantify than most people believe.

步行者球迷：现实上报酬身分良多环境下会倾覆良多人的认知。

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[–]CelticsAutoslamtronic 315 points 3 days ago

Compare it to Vegas odds, though, and you have a different story. James Harden is strongly favored in Vegas to win the MVP this year.

凯尔特人球迷：相较在拉斯维加斯的赔率完全纷歧样啊，哈登在拉斯维加斯阿谁排行榜里是要博得MVP的。

[–]Mavericksrustyphish 411 points 3 days ago*

This is what I don't get. I mean, I get that Giannis is good, but it's like this entire thread doesn't realize harden is putting up 37-8-7 while his two best teammates have been hurt lol

Edit: only gold ever earned for trashing Harden, now I get my only silver for defending him lol

独行侠球迷：这就是我不克不及理解的处所啊，我感觉字母哥确切很棒，可是全部帖子仿佛都没意想到哈登在两个队友都受伤的环境下打出了37+8+7的数据啊。

编纂：哎，骂哈登就是拿金币，为他措辞只能得银币。

[–]LakersJohn_Winchester 110 points 3 days ago

Harden is putting up no doubt MVP numbers, offensively. Giannis is putting up MVP numbers while also being one of if not the best defender in the league, and leading his team to the best record in the league. Defensive win shares isn't a perfect stat (like every other stat out there), but Giannis leads the league @ 0.188, while Harden is 191st w/ 0.074.

湖人球迷：哈登毫无疑问拿到MVP级此外数据，在进攻级别上尤其如斯。字母哥不但拿到了MVP级此外数据，并且在戍守上也有必然话语权，而且本身的球队在同盟里拿到了最好战绩。虽然戍守赢球进献值不是一个完善的数据(和其他数据一样)，可是字母哥引领同盟的0.188要比哈登的排名191的0.074好很多。

[–]Mavericksrustyphish 77 points 3 days ago

Shockingly, the voters do not care about defense nearly as much. I mean, we live in a world where Rudy Gobert isn't an all star so I think it's a little overly optimistic to think a ton of voters are going to hang their hat on defensive win shares

独行侠球迷：很震动，撑持者底子不关心戍守啊，我们此刻这个世界戈贝尔都进不了全明星，所以我感觉大师在戍守赢球进献值这个方面仍是过在乐不雅了。

[–]JazzMikkkey 213 points 3 days ago

Harden out here averaging 6.7 rebounds/7.7 assists/36.6 points with 2 steals and a block but has less than a 200% chance to win MVP? Whack

爵士球迷：哈登场均36.6分6.7篮板7.7助攻还2个抢断1个盖帽居然只有200%不到的概率博得MVP？

[–]RocketsPro_phet 131 points 3 days ago

I think youre the only Jazz fan to ever say something like that

火箭球迷：我感觉全全国只有你一个爵士粉丝会撑持哈登吧。

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[–]dogeblessUSA 186 points 3 days ago

giannis MVP is starting to get some steam right now and with CP3 back harden will probably slow down...if bucks finish with best record giannis will win mvp 1000%

字母哥的MVP之路已一片坦荡，而跟着保罗回归哈登可能会放缓他的脚步……假如雄鹿能拿到最好战绩字母哥百分之百就是MVP啊。

[–]CelticsConor27 336 points 3 days ago

starting to get some steam right now bruh he's been a top two MVP candidate all year lol

凯尔特人球迷：“此刻MVP道路一片坦荡”哈哈哈，可是他一全年都是MVP候选人啊。

[–][CLE] Cedi Osmanllewellynjean[S] 337 points 3 days ago

Here's a static version for those that prefer non-animated charts.

Full disclosure: Durant currently has a higher probability than PG to win MVP. And Kawhi currently has an equal chance to PG. But I left those two out because the conventional wisdom is that as of now its really just between Giannis, Harden, Jokic, and PG13.

骑士球迷：这是那张图的静态版本。

总的来讲：杜兰特此刻比保罗-乔治博得MVP的几率还要年夜，莱昂纳德此刻和乔治有着一样的机遇，可是我把莱昂纳德和杜兰特摘出去由于此刻首要能进入MVP会商的只有字母哥、哈登、约基奇和乔治。

[–]nowhathappenedwas 160 points 3 days ago

And Kawhi currently has an equal chance to PG.

This is because the tracker only looks at four things: team wins, PPG, RPG, and APG. It doesn't care that Kawhi has missed a bunch of games or that the Raptors are 13-3 without him.

“莱昂纳德此刻和有乔治一样的夺得MVP的几率。”

这是由于人们看MVP只看球队赢球数、场均得分、场均助攻、场均篮板，他们不在乎莱昂纳德缺阵了那末多场角逐，而猛龙在他缺席的时辰不外13胜3负。

来历：Reddit

编译：海上生明月